2013 Blue Jays Projections: Melky Cabrera

In somewhat of a surprise move, the Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly inked outfielder Melky Cabrera to a two-year, $16M deal. Now finished with his 50-game suspension for PED use, questions remain about his performance going forward, but it's skill related stats — not questions about strenght/endurance — that keep me optimistic.

Melky Cabrera – OF – TOR
2013 Age: 28 – Splits: None
2013 Projection: 655 AB, .301/.363/.487, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 92 R, 19 SB
Notes: Contact and line-drive rate up the last two years and being in his prime (age 28), there is a good chance that trend sticks. Moving to Toronto should help keep the power numbers to at least 15-20 with upside for 20-25 and his line-drive/groundball skills should translate well on the Rogers Centre turf. Look for a regression in AVG/OBP, but not a complete fall-off. Should score plenty of runs in that lineup to keep his fantasy value high should his AVG dip below .300.
 
Upside: .320/.375 with 20 HR, 20 SB and 100 R
Downside: .275/.330 with 15 HR and 15 SB