2013 Astros Projections: Dominguez, Wallace, Castro, Martinez, Paredes

We continue on with our 2012 Astros projections (see part one here). Warning: Astros fans may want to turn their heads.

Key: SSS = Small Sample Size (too small of a big league sample to make a judgement)

 
Matt Dominguez – 3B – HOU
2013 Age: 23 – Splits: SSS
2013 Projection: 487 AB, .224/.293/.393, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 41 R, 0 SB
Notes: What do you get when you a see player with a career minor league slash line of .256/.323/.409 hit .284 with 5 HR in only 113 plate appearances in his first major league action? False advertising. While Dominguez is only 23 and was once seen as a top prospect, his HR/FB rate of 20% will not hold over a full season and his lack of plate discipline will ultimately hurt his full season numbers. He's worth a late flyer in deeper formats, but don't bet on his small sample from 2012.
 
Brett Wallace – 1B – HOU
2013 Age: 26 – Splits: None, but small sample vs LHP
2013 Projection: .257/.328/.435, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 44 R, 1 SB
Notes: Wallace may have been a first round draft pick, and he may have a solid minor league slash line, but at 26 years of age he certainly looks like a quad-A bat. There is very little value or optimism here unless your league counts him as 3B eligible. Even if that were the case, I'm not on board.
 
Jason Castro – C – HOU
2013 Age: 25 – Splits: SSS, but has looked very bad vs LHP
2013 Projection: 410 AB, .262/.340/.412, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 35 R, 0 SB
Notes: Castro is what everyone thought he would be when the Astros drafted him in the first round in 2008: A solid big league catcher with good on-base skills and little else. He's a low-end play in OBP leagues due to solid walk rate, but has little-to-no upside in power.
 
Fernando Martinez – OF – HOU
2013 Age: 24 – Splits: SSS
2013 Projection: 260 AB, .247/.305/.452, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 17 R, 1 SB
Notes: Still only 24, this once big-time prospect has done little to reach expectations bestowed upon him years ago. Of course, those expectations were all based on the hope that his raw skills would refine with age. So far, that hasn't come close to happening. Unless he can cut down his strikeouts dramatically, optimism has to remain low.
 
Jimmy Paredes – OF – HOU
2013 Age: 24 – Splits: SSS
2013 Projection: 335 AB, .215/.276/.344, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 27 R, 10 SB
NotesDespite putting up nice numbers at Triple-A last season, I'm not buying in. Paredes has never shown much plate discipline and his swing — which I am definitely not a fan of — results in plenty of whiffs. Both factors point to big league pitching eating him alive. The Astros might give him a chance out of spring training, but it shouldn't last long.