Looking Back at Standings and Projections

And so closes another fantasy baseball season. Some of you hoisted championship trophies. More of you did not. Depending on the group you fall into, I offer congratulations or a thank you for playing.

This was a significant season for me, for a number of different reasons.

  1. I hoisted the Championship in my NL only league
  2. I finished 3rd in the Blog Wars league hosted by the RotoExperts, my first “expert” league.
  3. I committed the fantasy baseball blunder of the century.

Just as important as looking back on the performance of my fake teams is going to be looking back on the projections and rankings made before the season started. I want to know how I did there. So during the playoffs, I’m going to go back and look at what projections I made and then compare them to the numbers at seasons end. We’ll see where I had hits and misses and then count a final score. For the record, I’m anticipating a lot of misses. For fun, we’ll keep a tally like win-loss-tie. I’ll try to be as far as possible. If you disagree, let me know.

So, the first 5 players I projected…

 

 

Vance WorleyProjection – 15-9, 3.60 ERA, 168 K, 1.28 WHIP

Actual – 6-9, 4.20 ERA, 107 K, 1.51 WHIP

This is a pretty obvious miss. In addition to the gross difference in numbers I also felt Worley wasn’t an injury risk this season and he didn’t pitch after Aug 28th due to an elbow injury. That’s a quick 0-1 there.

Ryan Madson – Projection – 33 Saves, 2.40 ERA, 68 K’s and a 1.13 WHIP in 63 Innings

Actual – Did not play

I don’t think we can call this a miss since he didn’t pitch at all. A tie?

Anibal Sanchez – Projected 14-10, 3.40 ERA, 210 Ks, 1.27 WHIP, 195 IP

Actual – 9-13, 3.86 EA, 167 K, 1.27 WHIP, 195.2 IP

OK, I missed on the record and the number of K’s. But let’s be honest, the Marlins surprised a lot of people with how poorly they played. The projected K’s should have been lower as well. But I would say the rest isn’t half bad, considering I nailed WHIP and was off on IP by 2/3 of an inning. Tie?

Ike Davis – Projected; .280 Avg, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 72 Runs, 2 Steals, .360 OBP, .890 OPS, 570 AB’s

Actual; .227 Avg, 32 HR, 90 RBI, 66 R, 0 steals, .771 OPS, 519 AB’s

Despite the AVG, I’m proud of this projection. The AB count is low because he was dropped lower in the order costing him AB’s when he wasn’t making contact. If his AVG was higher that would have upped his OPS closer to the projection as well. Sure the AVG was a killer, but wouldn’t you like to have a 32 HR 90 RBI guy on your team? This was a hit. I’ll refrain from giving myself bonus points for calling for a monster 2nd half.

Mark Trumbo – Projected;  .260 AVG, 29 HR, 85 RBI, 63 R, 6 steals, .300 OBP, .797 OPS in 510 AB’s

Actual; .268 AVG,32 HR, 95 RBI, 66 R, 4 steals, .317 OBP, .808 OPS in 544 AB’s.

Well out of the 5 so far, this is the most accurate. I can remember writing his projection initially and thinking he could hit over 30 HR’s but I didn’t have the guts to say he was gonna do it. So there we go. Five projections in and I have a 2-1-2 record or 2-2-1 to show for it. I’ll you vote in the comments.