Looking Back at Standings and Projections Pt. 2

Continuing the hit and miss type look back on the projections and rankings from prior to the 2012 season…

 

 

Daniel Hudson – 2012 Projection;  17-12, 3.27 ERA, 180 K, 1.16 WHIP, 210 IP

Actual; 3-2, 7.35 ERA, 37 K, 1.63 WHIP, 45.1 IP

2012 was injury riddled for Hudson so perhaps he was never really able to get going. It’s a not a pretty game log to look at…three starts in April, then nothing between April 18 and May 27th, then not pitching again after June 26th. Regardless, you would hope he would have made the most of his 45 innings. Not the case… Big fat miss.

Jeremy Hellickson – 2012 Projection; 15 W, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 177 K, 200 IP

Actual; 10-11, 3.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 124 K, 177 IP.

I thought he would improve upon his K’s this past season from 2011 based on a high swinging strike rate. Well he did, but apparently I grossly over exaggerated how much, and to make things worse, he upped his K’s while simultaneously reducing his swinging strike rate. I think based on my Wins projection, K projection and IP projection coming up short I have to call this a miss… but barely.

Brandon Beachy – 2012 Projection; 14 W, 3.26 ERA, 200 K, 1.18 WHIP, 175 IP

Actual; 5-5, 2.00 ERA, 68 K, 0.96 WHIP, 81 IP

I called for improvement across the board from 2011 in Beachy’s numbers. While the season ending Tommy John surgery cut things short, he was certainly on his way. Beachy came out better than I thought he would. I’m going to take credit for this. I also pointed out he was in jury risk due to his jump in innings pitched. Nailed it.

Jesus Montero – 2012 Projection; .280 AVG, 25 HR, 75 R, 90 RBI, .340 OBP, .842 OPS in 560 AB’s

Actual; .260 AVG, 15 HR, 42 R, 62 RBI, .685 OPS, 515 AB’s.

Wow. I was way off there, until you go back and see that the above projection was made when he was still on the Yankees. So playing in Yankee Stadium in a Yankee lineup might have yielded those numbers. Anyone will have suffering numbers when your home field changes from Yankee Stadium to Safeco and from anyone in the Yankee lineup to Justin Smoak.  Sadly, this exercise doesn’t work that way. This is a big fat miss.

Jaime Garcia – 2012 Projection; 13 W, 3.86 ERA, 137 K, 1.31 WHIP in 190 IP

Actual; 7-7, 3.92 ERA, 98 K, 1.36 WHIP 121.2 IP.

Coming up 70 innings short of what my projection was based off of is going to skew the numbers, particularly the strikeouts. But, based on his 7.25 K/9 this past season, if he did reach that 190 innings projection I thought he would, hit K total would have been 153, over the projection I had for him. His WHIP and ERA are very close to where I projected. Wins were off, but honestly the pitcher can’t control that. I’m marking a hit.

I went 2-3 this go around, to bring my hit miss total to 4-4-2 so far in this series.