Looking Back at Standings and Projections Part 5

Continuing the hit and miss- type look back on the projections and rankings from prior to the 2012 season…

Alex Gordon – 2012 Projection; .280 AVG, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 78 Runs, 14 steals, .368 OBP, .838 OPS

Actual; .294, 14 HR, 72 RBI, 93 Runs, 10 steals, .368 OBP, .822 OPS

Hit for the most part. The power and speed were down and the Runs and RBI projections should be inversed. But OPS and OBP are right on. I wasn’t basing his projection based on him being the lead off guy, which he was for most of the season. I was on a pretty bad streak there. This hit came at a good time.

Andre Ethier- 2012 Projection; .286 AVG, 15 HR, 70 R, 75 RBI, 1 Steal, .362 OBP, .824 OPS

Actual; .284, 20 HR, 79 R, 89 RBI, 2 Steals, .351 OBP, .812 OPS

Another hit, barely… I also went so far as to calling this an optimistic projection, and the Dodgers surpassed people’s expectations this season, at least I think they did. I wasn’t expecting a whole lot out of that team. Next season is a different story though…

Ian Kennedy – 2012 Projection; 15 Wins, 3.30 ERA, 195 K, 1.10 WHIP in 220 innings

Actual; 15 W, 4.02 ERA, 187 K, 1.30 WHIP 208 IP

Another hit. I’m generous to myself today. I’m sorry I led you wrong on the ERA and WHIP there, but everything else is pretty spot on. If I gave myself the above two guys I have to give this one too…Anyway, I would look for his ERA to be somewhere between the 3.30 I thought last year and the 4.02 this year for next season. He has to have a normal BABIP at some point, right?

James Shields – 2012 Projection; 16 Wins, 3.12 ERA, 205 K, 1.10 WHIP in 220 IP

Actual; 15 W, 3.52 ERA, 223 K, 1.17 WHIP, 227.2 IP

I’m getting pretty good at this.

Josh Johnson – 2012 Projection; 15 Wins, 3.15 ERA, 151 K, 1.10 WHIP in 160 Innings

Actual; 8 W, 3.81 ERA, 165 K, 1.28 WHIP in 191 IP

Despite my generosity in the first 4 players, I can’t claim to be right here. The Wins were way off, as the Marlins did not live up to hype. His ERA was close enough, as was his WHIP, but his K’s were way off when you take his Innings pitched into account. I was anticipating in the 8.7 K/9 range, he actually got 7.76… off by 1. Which isn’t really that bad at all. Can I go back and say this was a W? No. Not gonna do it.

4-1 this time around, bringing the series to a very respectable 11-12-2 after 25 players.