Continuing the hit and miss- type look back on the projections and rankings from prior to the 2012 season…
Pablo Sandoval – 2012 Projection; .320 AVG, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 70 Runs, 2 Steals, .360 OBP, .890 OPS in 600 AB
Actual; .283 AVG, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 59 R, 1 steal, .258 OBP, .568 OPS
Miss. He broke his hand and missed a significant amount of time again this season (only 108 games played) and upon coming back didn’t quite live up to where I thought he would be. His Run and RBI total were right around where they were last year given the difference in games played only being 9, but his power was way down from last year. Plus side? It was still up from 2010, when he managed only 13 HR in 152 games.
Doug Fister – 2012 Projection; 12 W, 4.05 ERA, 118 K, 1.37 WHIP in 180 IP
Actual; 10 W, 3.45 ERA, 137 K, 1.19 WHIP in 161.2 IP
I was not high on Fister coming into this season. A low K/9, ground ball tendencies and a projected poor infield defense were causes for concern. He went ahead and raised his swinging strike rate, and his K/9 which go a way towards giving him some credibility. Keeping the walk rate low is going to keep the WHIP down too, and my high WHIP projection for him was based on poor defense giving up more hits, not his walk rate increasing. Fister appears to be the real deal and a performance next season similar to this one is going to be the expectation, not because of potential, but because of track record. This is a miss, but a good miss, if there is such thing.
Jordan Zimmermann – 2012 Projection; 12 W, 3.60 ERA, 154 K, 1.15 WHIP in 190 IP
Actual; 12 W, 2.94 ERA, 153 K, 1.17 WHIP in 195 IP
WOOT! This is my best one yet. I suppose even throwing darts blind folded you’re gonna get lucky and hit a bulls eye at some point. A definite hit.
Mike Trout – 2012 Projection; .275 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 60 Runs, 25 Steals, .345 OBP, .820 OPS in 396 AB’s
Actual; .326 AVG, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 129 runs, 49 steals, .399 OBP and .963 SLG
I’m going to make this quick as I actually felt an emptiness in my chest cavity while writing his actual stat line down. This is a miss. I don’t think anyone saw that season coming. He is my number 1 pick going into drafts next year, meaning I’ll never get him.
Drew Stubbs – 2012 Projection; .256 AVG, 20 17 HR, 72 48 RBI, 73 Runs, 32 Steals, .340 OBP, .743 OPS
Actual; .213 AVG, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 75 Runs, 30 Steals, .277 OBP, .610 OPS
Gah! The ratios are off, but the counting stats are nearly spot on. Looking at it though, it seems that Drew Stubbs out Drew Stubbs’d himself. Despite the 30 steals, league average power and OK runs totals, that AVG and OBP is killer and shouldn’t be near anything but the rosters of the deepest leagues. I’m calling miss, in hope that I’ve learned my lesson in being a Stubbs supporter. Good luck next year Drew.
For this group our hit miss record was 1-4, bringing it to 7-11-2 for the series.