Looking Back at Standings and Projections Part 3

Continuing the hit and miss- type look back on the projections and rankings from prior to the 2012 season…

Matt Garza – 2012 Projection; 14 W, 3.10 ERA, 194 K, 1.28 WHIP in 200 Innings

Actual;  5 W, 3.91 ERA, 96 K, 1.18 WHIP, 103.2 IP

Garza’s season ended in July. Doubling his innings pitched effectively gives us his K projection and WHIP projection…but the Wins would have come up a little short and who knows what would have happened with the ERA. Give myself the benefit of the doubt and say a Win based on that an ERA under 4 doesn’t kill teams. In a rotisserie league where you are trying to reach statistical goals or thresholds, a Garza addition would have been spot on.

Neftali Feliz – 2012 Projection; 10 W, 4.10 ERA, 132 K, 1.35 WHIP in 160 IP.

Actual; 3 W, 3.16 ERA, 37 K, 1.20 WHIP in 42.2 IP.

Another pitcher who’s season ended early… I’m sensing a trend. Feliz fared a bit better starting than I thought he would. His K/9 was identical in 2012 to its 2011 number, which is all you are looking for when drafting him. I want to toot my own horn here and point out that I called an increase in the long ball being a problem for him, and it was. His HR/9 doubled in 2012 from the year prior. I’m still going to call this a miss though.

Kenley Jansen – 2012 Projection; 3 Wins, 34 Saves, 2.21 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 92 K’s in 55 IP

Actual; 5 W, 25 Saves, 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 99 K, 65 IP.

So I was off by 10 saves, but everything else is right on the money. I did say that his projection was based on him closing out games, so if we add Javy Guerra’s saves to Jansen’s all of a sudden he has 33 saves, one short of his projection. This was a hit.

Michael Cuddyer – 2012 Projection; .270 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 68 Runs, 9 steals, .340 OBP, .773 OPS in 550 AB’s

Actual; .260 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 53 R, 8 Steals, .317 OBP, .806 OPS in 358 AB’s.

Cuddyer didn’t a play a game after August 18th. Could he have hit 4 more HR’s in the last 45 days to reach his HR projection? Probably… Could he have come close in his RBI and R totals? Yeah. Did he? No.  I’m going to make this a Miss. Is it fair? I dunno. I don’t have a solid system of identifying hits and misses. For Pete’s sake I credited another players’ stats and assumed them for Kenley Jansen in the last paragraph! This isn’t science.

Desmond Jennings – 2012 Projection; .276 AVG, 15 HR, 110 Runs, 58 RBI, 50 steals, .368 OBP,  .792 OPS in 680 AB

Actual; .246 AVG, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 85 Runs, 31 steals, .314 OBP, .702 OPS in 505 AB.

Time to fess up, that 680 number was actually plate appearances. There were a number of times I did that, and I usually caught it when proof-reading, but sometimes it slipped by. Anyway. This was a big ‘ol miss. I fell for the Desmond Jennings hype. There is another player who I hyped to no end that will be a miss on this series in the future (hint: His name rhymes with Rhrett Blawrie…)

2-3 on the Hit and Miss counter today. Brings us to 6-7-2 for the series.