Dustin Pedroia Player Projection No. 21

Key Stats: Dustin Pedroia finished last year as the 16th ranked overall player. It was the same ranking he had in 2008 when he was named the American League MVP. Pedroia did everything statistically. He was tied for 4th in home runs among second basemen and finished in the top 3 at the position at the other four standard categories.

Skeptics Say: There’s no telling what Bobby Valentine’s philosophy will be regarding Pedroia’s stolen base potential. He doesn’t have blazing speed, but is a smart enough player to get good jumps and steal 20. Also in terms of power, he had a career low in fly ball percentage, so he was lucky to end up with as many home runs as he had.

Peer Comparison: Only CBS is telling us to take Pedroia over Robinson Cano. The great thing about taking Pedroia over Cano is that he gives you more flexibility in terms of balancing the team later in the draft. In terms of position ranks, Cano has an obvious hole. Check out the position ranks for each player:

Player

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

Cano

2nd

3rd

1st

30th

3rd

Pedroia

3rd

4th

3rd

3rd

2nd

Cano should still go ahead in the rankings. If we were using the logic that a player that doesn’t contribute in steals should be ignored, then Miguel Cabrera would be taken ahead of Pedroia. What this tells me though is that getting Pedroia 9 or 10 picks after Cano is not a bad thing.

Lineup Outlook: Assuming that Pedroia is going to hit second again this season for the Red Sox, the RBI may be difficult to replicate. Jacoby Ellsbury was driving himself home a ton last season and the Red Sox also will have a lesser hitter in the 9th spot regardless of who wins the shortstop job. The Marco Scutaro trade was one of the quieter head-scratchers of the off-season.

What They’re Saying: CBS Sportsline: #1 Second Baseman; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com: #2 Second Baseman & #20 Overall; Yahoo: #2 Second Baseman & #17 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #2 Second Baseman & #17 Overall; RotoChamp: #16 Overall

Projection: Providing Pedroia stays healthy, there’s nothing stopping him from scoring a bunch, stealing 20, homering 20, and getting  over .300.
113 R 23 HR 86 RBI 24 SB .308 AVG .870 OPS in 650 plate appearances