Daily Notes | The Pitchers To Buy Low On Edition

One of the secrets to being a good fantasy sports player is to read. I read a lot. Yahoo!, ESPN, FanGraphs, FB365. You have to research, and my favorite kind of research is the kind where I don’t have to crunch numbers, people who are smarter than me have done it, and I can reference it. 

Michael Salfino has a great article today on pitchers being lucky or unlucky in the ERA department, pointing out that if a pitcher lets the lead off batter of an inning on, than he is 3 times more likely to give up a run. He concludes that pitchers with high OBA’s against the lead off batter, but low or average OBA against the rest of the lineup, are due to increase their value, and likewise, guys with opposite splits are due to regress. That is it in a nutshell, there are other things too, but I don’t want to re-write the guy’s whole article, you might as well give him the credit and the clicks he deserves by going to their site and reading it here, but not before checking out today’s Pitching Match Ups below…and my one daily note.

  • The Rockies are back at home. That means put Dexter Fowler back in your lineup.

Pitching Match Ups

Hochevar @ Bedard 

Santana @ Kuroda – The numbers say play Kuroda here, and by numbers I mean home/road splits, and by say, I mean they indicate he pitchers better at home than the road. The numbers weren’t actually speaking to me. Anyway, I have a gut feeling that The Mets are gonna win this one, and Lucas Duda is gonna go yard. So will Ike Davis. Short right field porch! And Jason Bay, whenever he gets back to the lineup, will be fantasy relevant again. 

Blanton @ Arrieta

Porcello @ Latos

Hellickson @ Nolasco – Pretty much two seasons under his belt at this point, and Hellickson’s ERA is still considerably lower than his FIP and xFIP… guess that isn’t something to be worried about anymore.

Strasburg @ Doubront

Drabek @ Beachy 

Wood @ Walters

W. Rodriguez @ Floyd 

Volquez @ Marcum 

Tomlin @ Westbrook

Wilson @ White

Milone @ Hudson

Eovaldi @ Milwood

Harrison @ Zito