Cameron Maybin Player Projection No. 104

Key Stats: Nobody had more stolen bases after the all-star break than Cameron Maybin. Maybin’s 28 steals in the second half were 2 more than the overall stolen base leader Michael Bourn. Maybin only had one steal in 23 games in May,  but clearly earned had confidence in himself and the trust of his coaches as the season progressed. It seems like he’s been around forever (he did play for the Tigers before Miguel Cabrera did once upon a time), but Maybin is only going to be 25 on Opening Day. He has the wheels to steal 50 bases if he can stay healthy. Compliment that with a potential 10 home runs and he’s bringing numbers to the table that even Bourn couldn’t bring last year.

Skeptics Say: It wouldn’t be fair to say that the Marlins didn’t at least see glimpses of what Maybin showed last year, but if they thought he could put together the season that he did, Edward Mujica would be pitching for the Padres. Maybin had a taste of big league action for parts of four seasons and couldn’t ever find a way to stick in the majors until last year. Just because he stayed up all of last season does not mean he’s “arrived” by any means. His 0.35 walks to strikeout rate was 28th worst in all of baseball. Among outfielders, he had the 45th best OBP. There’s an annoying saying about fast baseball players – they can’t steal first.

Peer Comparison: Here’s a look back on the players to steal 50 or more bases in the last three seasons and where they ended up in the overall Yahoo rankings:

 

Year

Player

Steals

Y! Ranking

2011

Michael Bourn

61

31

2010

Juan Pierre

68

54

2010

Michael Bourn

52

125

2010

Rajai Davis

50

105

2009

Jacoby Ellsbury

70

20

2009

Michael Bourn

61

69

2009

Carl Crawford

60

14

If Maybin can steal 50, he would be a great value at this point.

Team Outlook: In addition to his ability and age being positive indications that he will steal more in 2012, he also plays for the right team. The Padres don’t have the sluggers or the ballpark to sit and wait for runs to come. They will need to rely on the likes of Maybin to manufacture runs next season.  Maybin was the leadoff hitter for 39 of the Padres games and figures to hit there again next season since that is where he ended last season.

What They’re Saying: CBS Sportsline: #53 Outfielder; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com: #27 Outfielder & #85 Overall; RotoChamp: #164 Overall

Projection: Maybin is going to be a solid player in real baseball and could be a rising star in fantasy. He could be ranked anywhere from a top thirty player next season to the irrelevant former prospect many thought he was a year ago.
81 R 10 HR 47 RBI 51 SB .260 AVG .320 OBP .710 OPS