Key Stats: Let’s get down to the brass tacks here. Posey is the Giants offense. He hit over .320 in four of his stops in the minors, with ISO’s all around .200, except for a 7 game appearance in rookie ball when it was .308. He was called up with all the hype in the world and played a major part in the Giants 2010 World Series run teeing off 18 times in 108 games. A broken ankle ended his season after 45 games last year, and with that, the Giants hope at another World Series run.
Skeptics Say: Despite the small sample size, there was a fairly noticeable difference in his production in 2011 from the breakout he had in ’10. His walk rate went up by 3%, but that is really all that was good. He went into contact mode, with his ISO dropping from .200 to .105, SLG went from .505 to .389., the K% jumped four points, the ground ball % went up, the HR/FB rate dropped, the surprising number of births 9 months after his callup declined significantly (I would guess… I have no data to back this up.)
Peer Comparison: I made the comment above that Posey is the Giants offense. If we combine his 2010 and ’11 seasons, he has one season of stats under his belt. Pablo Sandoval put together an impressive season last year as well, showing that he can be the player we thought he was. How important are these two guys to the rest of the Giants offense?
|Posey ’10 &’11||.294||22||88||76|
|Rest of Team ’11||.269||94||443||498|
OK, now before someone jumps all over me, I KNOW it’s a slightly flawed comparison, the numbers I gave for Posey are over a two season period, but really, his career is only 160 games. The point is to show just how valuable his bat is compared to the rest of the line up. Now with that out of the way…
Considering Posey’s 22 bombs over a “full season” and Sandoval’s 23 while missing a month, we have two players comprising nearly the entire offensive output. Aubry Huff lead the team in AVG among qualified hitters last year with a .246 average. .246… When looking at things in this perspective, Posey looks like the best thing to happen to the Giants (from a fantasy perspective) since Bonds started using the cream.
Team Outlook: Re-read the peer comparison part of this article, or, pause, get a drink, and let the atrociousness of the Giants offense last year sink in some.
Projection: As he gets more experience his BB% is going to continue to go up. Being a catcher his AB’s are going to be limited and he doesn’t have the luxury of being a DH to rest while keeping his bat in the lineup. That said, he can match the AB productivity of someone like Carlos Santana, but won’t get the AB’s necessary to keep pace in the counting stats like HR, RBI and R over the course of a full season.
.290 AVG, 16 HR, 85 RBI, 70 R, .370 OBP, 2 steals in 500 AB