Key Stats: Is it me, or does Aramis Ramirez get a bad rap? I feel like he is one of those guys that doesn’t get any respect. I think there is a mythos about him that he is old and each year is the year that he is going to fall apart because he has been around forever. Truth be told though, when you come up and wear a major league uniform at 19 like Ramirez has, and you are going into your 15th season, you have to be doing something right. That something is bat .284 and average 21 HR’s a year for your career. He is six years removed from a 30 HR season, but with the exception of an 82 game injury shortened 2009 he hasn’t hit less than 25 in that span. I’ll take that production matched with him moving to a more potent offense for ’12.
Skeptics Say: He may have finished 2011 injury free, but Ramirez has seen the DL four times since 2005. He also is one season removed from a less than desirable .241 AVG. Of course that was paired with a career high strikeout percentage, and that did drop back down to be more in line with his career percentage in 2011, and despite the low average he wasn’t lacking for power, still giving us 25 HR’s and an ISO of .211. To me we should be more worried about Ramirez staying on the field than this being the year his perceived age catches up with him.
Peer Comparison: Ramirez is being taken about 30 picks after David Wright in drafts at Mock Draft Central, the difference between 3rd round and 6th round. Granted, Wright is younger, but his trends have all been going in the wrong direction. Moving in the fences at Citi Field will help some, but that doesn’t help when he isn’t making solid contact (line drive rate in decline last three years), or strikes out (increasing over the last three years). Ramirez on the other hand and his down 2010 year feature numbers that were more of an anomaly rather than trend. He bounced back to career average or better in AVG, BABIP, wOBA, SLG, and Line Drive percentage. Now we look at the potency of the Brewers line up compared to that of the Mets, and things are lining up, on paper at least, for Ramirez to finish with more value than Wright. Does this mean that I think Wright is a worse player than Ramirez? No, I’m a Mets fan and I love Wright. I have hope that he can bounce back to his former self, but if it comes down to grabbing a player that has been trending downward for three seasons in round 3 and hoping for a bounce back or drafting a player that’s a season removed from an off year that was bookmarked by two seasons where he performed to expectation, and those expectations are a .280 AVG with 25 HR’s and 90 RBI, in the 6th round, I’m gonna spend that 3rd round pick elsewhere.
Lineup Outlook: Fielder is gone, Braun is missing 50 games (probably). They will need big production from Ramirez and Hart to stay afloat in Braun’s absence. Once he is in the lineup though, the Brewers shouldn’t have any problem scoring runs if everyone is healthy. That’s a big if, with the injury histories of Ramirez and Weeks on that roster.
Projection: I like the move from the Cubs to the Brewers. Like I said before, I think this guy gets a bad rap, and maybe now that he is on a competitive team he might get some more respect.
.284 AVG, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 70 Runs, 0 steals, .350 OBP, .870 OPS in 510 AB’s