The end of April is closing in fast and while some pitchers have come out of the gates hot, others have not been as impressive. For fantasy GMs, this represents and opportunity to buy low on some guys who may have had a run of tough luck early on.
Zack Greinke, 5.09 ERA – Greinke has 19 strikeouts in 17.2 innings of work against only three walks. However, his BABIP against is a high .362 and he has only stranded 50 percent of his baserunners (10 out of 20). Both numbers should correct themselves and Greinke has the stuff and the track record that says that he should continue to strike batters out at an extremely high rate.
Edwin Jackson, 4.26 ERA – Jackson has only allowed 14 baserunners so far this season, but somehow nine of those 14 have come in to score. That rate won’t stick. While I endorse a buy low, it’s a medium sized buy low. Jackson has a terrific K/BB rate right now, but his track record suggests that will regress as the season goes on. Still, he’s now in the National League, so we very well could see him post a career high strikeout rate this season.
CC Sabathia, 5.59 ERA – Sabathia has struck out 22 batters in 19.1 innings, but he has also surrendered three home runs in the early goings. That 1.4 HR/9 rate should fall based on what Sabathia has done in the past on top of how he continues to miss bats at a high rate (27 percent whiff rate).
Dan Haren, 4.07 ERA – Haren continues to do what he has done in the past, post an above average strikeout rate and be extremely stingy with his walks allowed. His track record and talent level suggest the his .370 BABIP against and whopping 28-percent line drive rate against will both regress. Batters have chased Haren’s pitches outside the strike-zone about 40 percent of the time, so he’s still fooling guys, but their hits are finding holes in the defense.