Post-April predictions

April was a crazy month filled with plenty of surprises and disappointments. Former scrubs shined while superstars slumped. It’s important to note that the baseball season has a very long way to go before all is said and done. With that in mind, I asked a few fellow baseball writers to make some quick predictions on the future numbers of some of fantasy baseball’s biggest storylines.

The panel:
Myself
Chip Buck, Fire Brand of the American League
Andrew Holm, Sons of Roto
Mark Schruender, Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

For the rest of the season…

 

Jose Bautista home runs
Charlie 31
Chip 26
Andrew 43
Mark 33
Lance Berkman home runs
Charlie 20
Chip 20
Andrew 18
Mark 13
Russell Martin home runs
Charlie 5
Chip 7
Andrew 8
Mark 9
Adrian Gonzalez home runs
Charlie 33
Chip 32
Andrew 31
Mark 37
Sam Fuld stolen bases
Charlie 26
Chip 42
Andrew 35
Mark 23
Jacoby Ellsbury stolen bases
Charlie 52
Chip 50
Andrew 45
Mark 45
Hanley Ramirez HR/SB
Charlie 25/28
Chip 26/26
Andrew 20/30
Mark 23/26
Carlos Gonzalez HR/SB
Charlie 25/18
Chip 26/19
Andrew 24/23
Mark 24/23

At the end of the season…

Carl Crawford’s AVG
Charlie 0.291
Chip 0.290
Andrew 0.281
Mark 0.280
Alex Gordon’s AVG
Charlie 0.287
Chip 0.285
Andrew 0.275
Mark 0.297
Jeff Frencouer’s AVG
Charlie 0.270
Chip 0.260
Andrew 0.278
Mark 0.290
Jered Weaver’s ERA
Charlie 3.05
Chip 3.25
Andrew 3.19
Mark 2.60
Michael Pineda’s ERA
Charlie 3.95
Chip 3.90
Andrew 3.65
Mark 3.15
Francisco Liriano’s ERA
Charlie 3.75
Chip 4.05
Andrew 4.72
Mark 3.90
Yovani Gallardo’s ERA
Charlie 3.75
Chip 3.70
Andrew 3.89
Mark 3.90
Struggling player about to breakout
Charlie Crawford  
Chip Crawford/Hanley  
Andrew Figgins  
Mark Morneau  
Hot player going to cool off
Charlie Berkman  
Chip Ethier  
Andrew Kendrick  
Mark Polanco  

Mark’s take on Adrian Gonzalez: He’ll still hit 38. He had months of 2, 3, and 4 home runs in his career, so they’ll come in bunches. Interesting to note, Petco isn’t that much worse than Fenway in terms of home run potential, but Fenway is the best park for doubles and Petco is the worst.

Mark’s take on Jacoby Ellsbury: In 2009 he stole 60 from May through the end of the season, but I think he is transitioning into more of a power threat. Not to say he’ll be compared to Maris, but he has gotten stronger and isn’t the same build he was a few years ago.

Andrew’s take on Chone Figgins: Chone’s .231 BABIP is 100 points below his career average for BABIP despite him lacing Line Drives (21.6% LD%). He’s also making more contact this season (career high 11.7% K%). His .214 Batting Average is a fluke and it is hindering his Stolen Base attempts.

Andrew’s take on Howie Kendrick: Howie leads the league in BABIP despite his well below-average 16.9% LD%. The luck doesn’t stop with the balls in play. Unless he sprouted Ryan Howard-like muscles overnight, his 24% HR/FB% is going to crash like a diabetic without a sugar fix. The power display is far from real. Also, Howie is injury prone and the Angels have four Middle Infielders playing three positions. This has disaster written all over it.