ADP Report: 3rd Round Values and Busts

The third round often turns out to be a crucial turning point for fantasy GM’s. Based on data from Mock draft Central, he’s a look at some possible value picks and busts coming off the board in picks 25-36.

Mock Draft Central round three ADP as of 2/10/11
25. Shin-Soo Choo
26. Jose Reyes
27. Kevin Youkilis
28. Felix Hernandez
29. Victor Martinez
30. Dustin Pedroia
31. Brian McCann
32. Nelson Cruz
33. Ichiro Suzuki
34. Brandon Phillips
35. Cliff Lee
36. Adam Wainwright

3rd Round Values

Jose Reyes – SS – NYM
2010 was a weird year for Reyes. He was diagnosed with a thyroid condition in the spring, but was in the lineup in early April. Nagging injuries held him to 133 games, but in that time he still hit .282 with 11 home runs, 83 runs and 30 stolen bases. If he stays on the field in 2011, he should easily steal 45-plus bases with the upside for 50-plus. Sure, Reyes is an injury risk, but perhaps this being his contract year will make a big difference.

Kevin Youkilis – 1B (3B very soon) – BOS
There is nothing flashy about Youk; he just keeps getting the job done. An injury cost him significant time in 2010, but he should be back to normal this spring. With the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez hitting in front of him, there should be more than enough runs to drive in. Oh yeah, and then there is the fact that he’ll be eligible at the thin 3B position early in the season.

Dustin Pedroia – 2B – BOS
He may not get to 20/20, but there is a very good chance he comes close. Pedroia could hit third in the renovated Red Sox lineup, which would give him a legit shot at 100 runs and 90 RBI. That would be production that rivals the likes of Chase Utley and Robinson Cano.

Possible Busts

Ichiro Suzuki – OF – SEA
Anyone else concerned about Ichiro’s three-year regression in line drive rate and three-year rise in chase rate on top of the fact that he’s 37 years old? The lineup around him is somewhat improved, but it may not be enough to get him back to the 90-plus runs scored mark.

Brandon Phillips – 2B – CIN
Phillips fell short of a least a 20/20 for the first time in three years, but he did battle an injured hand down the stretch. Labeling him as a possible “bust” is more about taking him in the third round than anything else. Second base has some depth in 2011 with Dan Uggla and Ian Kinsler going a round or so later and Martin Prado, Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson going even later.