It’s almost mid-way though May and things are starting to settle in. Hot starts have fizzled, cold streaks are warming and some players continue to surprise or disappoint. Let’s take a look at ESPN’s most added and dropped to see how fantasy GMs are reacting and if you can take advantage.
– Upon the news of Eric Hosmer’s call to the big leagues, I frantically tried to add him in every league possible. While I wrote about tempering expectations
, as I have learned to do for rookies, Hosmer has looked very impressive in the early going. He may only be 4-for-16, but his excellent plate discipline has certainly been on display with five walks to five strikeouts. I don’t think he’ll be a top-end 1B option this season, but he should hit enough to stay on 12-team mixed rosters. I’d still try and sell high if someone is willing to pay for the hype.
Matt Joyce – After a very cold start to the season, Joyce got hot fast and saw a dramatic rise in his AVG. The problem, however, was the lack of home runs and RBI. That power game, which he has shown in the past, has begun to emerge with four long-balls in his last 10 games. That being said, there are two big warning signs that suggest he wont sustain this level of production for too long. First is his sky-high .425 BABIP, most of which (.444) has come against right-handed pitching. That leads to the second issue: Joyce still struggles against left-handed pitching. He is a .152/.269/.212 career hitter versus left-handed pitching and he is only 2-for-15 against lefties so far this season. Once his BABIP drops, Joyce probably won’t provide much other than the occasional home run, which would make him borderline rosterable in 12-team mixed leagues. Joyce leads the AL in AVG, which is a selling point. Sell high if you can.
Melky Cabrera – Cabrera’s value this season has largely come in his runs and RBI numbers. Melky ranks in the top 20 in runs scored and the top 30 in RBI. He’ll have to continue to rely on those around him (runners on base ahead of him and hitters behind him) to maintain value. That’s a risky proposition. If you can sell on his to 60 ranking, now would be a good time to do so.
– It looks like Padilla is the go-to arm in the ninth for the Dodgers. Based on the opinion of a physical therapist
, Broxton may have trouble finding much success even when he returns from the DL. Padilla may not be a lock-down closer, but he is one and sometimes that’s all that counts in fantasy baseball.
Sam Fuld – They say legends never die, but The Legend of Sam Fuld will have to survive on the waiver wire for now. Fuld’s AVG has dropped from .301 to .254 in 10 games and he only has one stolen base over that time. The drop-off was predictable, but Fuld has a chance to bounce back from these depths. He’s probably not going to hit much more than .275, but he could still be a source of stolen bases for teams with the need.
Brandon Lyon – Not that he was really a “closer” anyway. Hopefully when he returns, he is put into a middle relief role, where he belongs.
– Don’t say I didn’t warn you
! After back-to-back rough outings, Wolf’s ERA has skyrocketed from 2.39 to 4.11. Wolf can still be a useful pitcher in the right matchup, but his fantasy value is mostly relegated to deeper leagues at this point.
– Hundley was a sell candidate
for me in late April. With a drop in AVG and no home runs since April 17th, Hundley is pretty much off of the 12-team mixed league map. He might have some value is streaks, but he’s not the type of player that will be consistent enough to stay on standard league rosters.
Brett Myers – Last season, Myers was able to limit home run damage as well as keep from issuing too many free passes. Both categories, however, have been more of an issue in 2011. Myers has already allowed 10 home runs in 50.1 innings. He allowed 20 all of last season. Given his recent performance, it would seem like a long-shot that Myers finds his 2010 groove again. However, I think there’s a chance he can at least improve his K/BB rate enough to be useful in deep mixed leagues.
Jonny Gomes – The problem with Jonny Gomes is if he isn’t hitting home runs, he isn’t doing much of anything else. Gomes hasn’t hit a home run since April 17th. While he has the raw power to hit bombs in bunches, you’ll have to wait until such a streak comes along again.