Week Four Two-Start Pitchers

It’s Saturday and that means it’s time to look at next week’s two-start pitchers.  There are plenty of good options at the top as well as some intriguing gambles toward the middle of the list.

The No-Doubters

Roy Halladay (@SF, NYM)
Felix Hernandez (@KC, TEX)
Josh Johnson (SD, WAS)
Chris Carpenter (ATL, CIN)
Josh Beckett (@TOR, @BAL)
Dan Haren (@COL, @CHC)
Yovani Gallardo (PIT, @SD)
Zack Greinke (SEA, TB)
Francisco Liriano (@DET, @CLE)
Jared Weaver (CLE, @DET)
The Shoulds
Jonathan Sanchez (PHI, COL) – Over 12 K/9 and an improved walk rate (so far).  Hopefully he can neutralize the Phillies left-handed power.
Randy Wolf( PIT, @SD) – Both matchups are favorable for Wolf.
Phil Hugues( @BAL, CWS) – Huges has 16 strikeouts in his first 12.1 innings.  The seven walks are a bit concerning, but two good matchups in week four make him a pitcher you want to start.
Hiroki Kuroda (@NYM, PIT) – Two good matchups for one of fantasy baseball’s most consistent pitchers.
Shaun Marcum (BOS, OAK) – Marcum hasn’t been great early on, but he has 23 strikeouts to only four walks in 27 innings plus a good matchup aganist the A’s. 
C.J. Wilson (CWS, SEA) – Wilson has been impressive early on with 7.32 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground ball rate.  His whiff rate (25.6 percent) is extremely encouraging.  Roll him out there for two good matchups at home in week four.
The Gambles
Mat Latos (@FLA, MIL) – The command and ground ball rate have been there for Latos early this season, but the strikeouts have yet to follow suit.  The Marlins and Brewers are both in the top five in runs scored, so there is some risk here.
Tim Hudson (@STL, HOU) – Seven walks to seven strikeouts in 18.2 innings are hiding behind a misleading 2.89 ERA.  Maybe I’d take a flier against Houston, but I don’t trust Hudson at St. Louis.
Edwin Jackson (@COL, @CHC) – Jackson has been OK so far, but he just isn’t the pitcher we saw in the first half of 2009.  I don’t like the matchup in Colorado.
Wade Davis (OAK, KC) – Decent matchups, but 13:11 K:BB is concerning.
Tom Gorzelany (WAS, ARI) – Right now Gorzelany is missing bats, getting ground balls and racking up some nice strikeout numbers.  Three big indicators I look for in a pitcher.
Carlos Silva (WAS, ARI) – Silva is benefiting from a .178 BABIP against despite a line drive rate over 20 percent.  I guess he is hot right now, but I wouldn’t start him this week.  Then again, I wouldn’t own him in any league either.
Vicente Padilla (@NYM, PIT) – Padilla’s ERA is over 7.00 right now, but he has run into a bit of bad luck.  His BABIP against is a very high .355, his strand rate is a very low 60.7 percent and his line drive rate is at 17 percent.  He has struck out 23 in 21.2 innings while only walking six (3.83 K/BB rate).  Go ahead and take a flier against two struggling offenses.
Bud Norris (CIN, @ATL) – The strikeout potential is worth a flier in deep leagues, but control issues and the fact that the Astros offense is sputtering doesn’t make this a great gamble in most formats.
Oliver Perez (LAD, @PHI) – This is a big gamble to take because of Perez’s lack of control, but Manny is on the DL for his start against the Dodgers and he may be able to neutralize the left-handed threats of the Phillies.  I personally wouldn’t take the gamble unless I was in a pinch.
The Not-So-Much
Mark Buehrle (@TEX, @NYY) – Always risky because of low strikeout rates, Buehrle takes to the road against two scary offenses.  I’d stay away.
Ben Sheets (@TB, @TOR) – Still hit or miss with command and on the road against two potent lineups.
Aaron Harang (@HOU, @STL) – I’m not ready to cut Harang yet, but I’m certainly not going to start him until teams stop tattooing his offerings.  Four starts in and Harang is already one-fourth of the way to his 2009 home runs allowed total.
Dana Eveland (BOS, OAK) – Eveland is off to a hot start.  He did this a couple of years ago while pitching for Oakland.  However, he is currently sporting an ugly 1.29 K/BB rate, so the risk is extremely high.
Jeremy Bonderman (@TEX, LAA) – @TEX is never a good thing and Bonderman has been hit hard early on.
Jason Hammel (ARI, @SF) – Hammel’s command has been off so far.  I do believe that he will turn things around at some point, but I can’t trust him until it does.
Matt Harrison (DET, @SEA)
The Stay Aways
Jon Garland (@FLA, MIL) – Don’t let the 2.86 ERA fool you. Garland’s 10:12 K:BB is horrible and he’s going up against two good offenses this week.
David Huff (LAA, MIN) - Huff has allowed nine walks to only seven strikeouts in 21 innings.  He’s not missing many bats, but is getting by with an insanely low .176 BABIP against. 
Derek Lowe (@STL, HOU)
Zach Duke (@MIL, @LAD)
Kyle Loshe (ATL, CIN)
Lohn Lannan (@CHC, @FLA)
Kyle Davies (SEA, @TB)
Ian Snell (@KC, TEX)
Daniel McCutchen (@MIL, @LAD)