Sell High on Chris Young

.239/.310/.440
 
That is the career line of Diamondbacks outfielder Chris Young.
 
.274/.338/.462
 
That is his line-to-date for 2010, making him the 77th highest ranked player according to Yahoo!
 
Young has shown us in the past that he is capable of hitting for power and combining that with 20-plus steal speed, but he has yet to put everything together with a solid AVG over a full season.
 
The problem…
 

Everything about Young’s approach at the plate is very similar to what he has done so far in his career. He is still whiffing a lot (23.6 percent) and striking out close to 25 percent of his plate appearances. Also, Young has been a below average line drive hitter throughout his career. That is why he has had some particularly low BABIP’s over the past few seasons (.280 career BABIP).

 
The problem right now is that Young has been a bit fortunate with regards to his current BABIP of .319. That wouldn’t seem incredibly high, but it is for a hitter with a line drive rate of about 14 percent and a fly ball rate of about 51 percent. Both categories being where they are, would normally hold down a hitter’s BABIP, but instead Young is actually benefiting from it.
 
Call it what you will (luck perhaps), but if Young continues on his current pace, his BABIP should regress, leaving little room from error with regard to his AVG.
 
Currently, young is on pace for about 24 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Those would be tremendous numbers if combined with a high enough AVG, but there is a high risk of Young regressing in that category to a point where it becomes a negative. If he can’t hold a high enough AVG, his numbers could end up looking very similar to what he did in 2008, when he was not a top 100 player (141 according to Yahoo!).
 
This is a good time to sell high on Chris Young while he has a top 100 ranking. There is a considerable amount of risk in a possible drop off in AVG, which would affect his numbers across the board. Use his current value to fill another need and walk away happy that you did.