Re-ranked: First Base

Yesterday, we started the re-rankings by position. Today we hit up the deeeep first base ranks with a focus on rest of season outlook.
 

1. Miguel Cabrera – His best season (so far) in terms of plate discipline and the results are outstanding. This could be the year he cracks 40 HR.

 
2. Albert Pujols – Went on a tear after a HR drought. Numbers should be top notch once again in the end. Yeah, Miguel Cabrera is THAT good.
 
3. Justin Morneau – .412 BABIP has inflated AVG to .365, but even with regression he should hit around .300 with 30-plus HR.
 
4. Prince Fielder – HR/FB rate very low for his standards. When he gets hot, he should explode in the power department.
 
5. Joey Votto – 50% ground ball rate unusual for Votto. Look for more liners and fly balls to turn into more home runs.
 
6. Adrian Gonzalez – Premiere power hitter with very good plate discipline on pace for 30/90/100 season.
 
7. Mark Texieira – .247 BABIP despite 20% LD rate indicates poor luck so far.
 
8. Kevin Youkilis – Pure hitter with good power, but lacks the 30-plus HR pop to be elite.
 
9. Paul Konerko – Looking healthy and showing no signs of slowing down.
 
10. Ryan Howard – Poor contact rate and declining walk rate have hurt so far, but potential to show big power in second half.
 
11. Billy Butler – Had about the same amount of home runs at this point last season with a lower AVG and went on a second half tear.
 
12. Pablo Sandoval – line drive rate way down. Had a big second half in 2009, so there is still plenty of upside here.
 
13. Mark Reynolds – Stolen base threat all but gone and amazingly high 40% strikeout rate holding AVG way down.
 
14. Adam Dunn – AVG could regress due to a .356 BABIP, but power should pick up. 18% HR/FB rate would be his lowest since 2002.
 
15. Justin Smoak – Tremendous plate discipline and big time power. Low .234 BABIP despite line drive rate almost 26 percent indicated a ton of bad luck. He could have a monster second half.
 
16. Nick Swisher – Track record says his AVG won’t hold, but so far he has been a much more contact oriented hitter (24% LD rate).
 
17. Lance Berkman – There is a chance for a decent second half, but time as top 10 1B is over.
 
18. Troy Glaus – Decent power option if he can stay healthy.
 
19. Ty Wigginton – Has slowed since 13 HR April/May. Expect .270-.280 AVG with 15 or so HR rest of season.

 
20. Jorge Cantu – 20 HR power has returned along with health. Prime lineup spot should keep RBI up.
 
21. Michael Cuddyer – Power not going to reach 2009 heights, but prime lineup spot should keep RBI up.
 
22. Garrett Jones – Should end up with similar HR/SB numbers to last season with 85 or so RBI.
 
23. James LoneyNot a fan.
 
24. Adam LaRoche – Second-half stud, but he’s not going to be any better than he has been in past seasons.
 
25. Carlos Pena – Miserable 10% LD rate needs to improve for power to matter.
 
26. David Ortiz – Can still hit it out when he gets one in his zone, but showing continuing regression in strikeout rate and contact rate, so AVG not likely to rise.
 
27. Ike Davis – Low contact rate and high strikeout rate limit AVG potential.
 
28. Luke Scott – Could hit .275 with 15 or so HR the rest of the way if he can maintain high LD rate (22%).
 
29. Russell Branyan – 20-plus home run power, but injury risk and AVG killer.
 
30. Aubrey Huff – Lineup and ballpark limit power potential, but a nice comeback season for deeper leagues.
 
Others
Victor Martinez – Much more valuable as top ranked catcher.
Mike Napoli – Could finally hit 25 home runs given extra playing time at 1B, but use at catcher.
Martin Prado – Much more valuable as a 2B or 3B so stay tuned for those rankings.
Daric Barton – Good plate discipline, but contact oriented hitter won’t hit for enough power in standard leagues.
Gaby Sanchez – In danger of losing his job to top prospect Logan Morrison.