Projecting: Hot/Cold Hitters over the last 30 days

BABIP is a great tool to use when evaluating the sustainability or lack thereof of a hitter’s AVG. However, there is a correlation between BABIP and line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates as each has a different hit expectancy. With that in mind, let’s look at some hot and cold hitters over the last 30 days and project which way their AVG should turn going forward.


Hitting line drives is certainly a skill and one that gives a hitter the best chance to get a hit (unless you have the home run power of an Albert Pujols). However, hitting line drives in over 25 percent of your balls in play, while good for the short term, is a bit unsustainable over the long run. Below is a list of hitters who may not be able to sustain their high lien drive rates into September.
A few of these hitters actually were unlucky over the last 30 days. Andre Ethier, Cliff Pennington, Neil Walker, Melky Cabrera, Yorvit Torrealba, and Daric Barton all held considerably low AVG’s despite a very high line drive rate. Clint Barmes could be lumped in with that group, but he had a high fly ball rate, which sort of counteracts the high line drive rate.
Below is a list of hitters that might be considered a bit lucky given the correlation between their LD/GB/FB rates and very high BABIP over the last 30 days.
Despite hitting a good amount of line drives and not too many fly balls, these hitters saw poor results of their balls in play and may be in for better results going forward.