One Man’s Trash…Week 12

Taking a break from the re-rankings, let’s take a look at some of the most dropped players in ESPN leagues and see if they might hold value for your team.

Ervin Santana -26 percent

Santana has a very nice 2.82 K/BB rate right now, but he has been really hurt by mistake pitches. His line drive rate against is 22.7 percent, which is much higher than his 19.2 percent career average. On the positive side, Santana is striking out 7.7 batters per nine innings, missing plenty of bats (whiff rate over 20 percent) and getting hitters to chase pitches outside the strike-zone (30 percent chase rate). If he can keep the ball in the ballpark and keep his pitches from finding too much of the plate, there would be plenty of value in his numbers going forward.
John Ely -21.8 percent
What started out as a nice story has faded fast as Ely has allowed 15 earned runs in his last three starts. In reality Ely is very much a command pitcher, who pitches to contact and relies on the results of his balls in play. That might work if he had a high ground ball rate or a lower line drive rate against (23 percent currently), but he doesn’t and he won’t likely find as much success as he did upon his call-up.
Austin Jackson -18.3 percent
A 26 percent strikeout rate is very concerning for a player of Jackson’s skill set. His BABIP is still over .400, which won’t hold. When his AVG regresses further he won’t be of much value in mixed leagues without more stolen bases.
Buster Posey -15.3 percent
I wrote about expectations when Posey was called up. He is what he is, a good hitter, but not a player that is likely to “save” any fantasy teams this season. In a Giants lineup that desperately needs power, Posey is just another hitter with limited home run potential. His swing is more line drive/ground ball oriented and that has taken shape over his first 76 Major League at-bats this season (51.5 percent ground ball rate). Recently, I ranked Posey as the eighth best catcher for the rest of the season. You can move him down one spot now that Carlos Santana has arrived.
Mike Stanton -14.4 percent
The hype surrounding Stanton was well deserved for what he was doing at double-A, but it also caused fantasy owners to think they were getting an instant all-star. The huge power numbers made it easy to look past the high strikeout totals. So far, in 43 Major League at-bats, Stanton has struck out 19 times (44 percent strikeout rate). He has also only walked four times. Don’t expect the stolen base pace to continue either. Stanton’s career high stolen base total in a single season is four. Owners in need of power who can afford to stash Stanton and have some room to give away a little AVG can feel free to add the slugging 20-year-old as his power potential is still sky high.