fb365_2010_standings_thru_august

Looking Back: FB365 League’s Inaugural Draft Part 1

September is just around the corner and while some teams are fighting it out to finish in the money, others are relegated to the fact that their season is effectively over.

 

My FB365 League team is one of the “effectively over” ones.

 

It’s not too early to take a look back and see what went right and what went wrong. Who were the biggest values or biggest busts? Who improved their stock for next season and who’s value fell off the cliff?

 

Round 1

 

1.

Albert Pujols

Seeking Relief

2.

Hanley Ramírez

Guppies

3.

Ryan Braun

Braun’s …

4.

Álex Rodríguez

FB365

5.

Chase Utley

Shallow Be T…

6.

Matt Kemp

WOLF DEN

7.

Joe Mauer

PBurke

8.

Evan Longoria

Schwetty Wei…

9.

Mark Teixeira

Babe Ruthless

10.

Ryan Howard

LosPunchados…

11.

Prince Fielder

Maiden Correia

12.

Miguel Cabrera

Strictly Bus…

 

Isn’t the first round supposed to be filled with rock solid values? So far, only two of these players (Pujols and Cabrera) have put forth top ten value and only half (Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley, Braun, Longoria, Teixeira) currently rank in Yahoo!’s top 50. Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez and Prince Fielder represent this round’s biggest busts. A-Rod’s stock has probably taken the biggest hit.

 

Round 2

 

13.

Ian Kinsler

Strictly Bus…

14.

David Wright

Maiden Correia

15.

Tim Lincecum

LosPunchados…

16.

Troy Tulowitzki

Babe Ruthless

17.

Justin Upton

Schwetty Wei…

18.

Matt Holliday

PBurke

19.

Dustin Pedroia

WOLF DEN

20.

Adrián González

Shallow Be T…

21.

Carl Crawford

FB365

22.

Roy Halladay

Braun’s …

23.

Joey Votto

Guppies

24.

Zack Greinke

Seeking Relief

 

Of this group, only David Wright and Matt Holliday have earned their round value while Carl Crawford, Joey Votto and Roy Halladay put forth first round production. I’d gladly draft Votto in this first round of 2011 drafts. Justin Upton has been a big disappointment as many were expecting huge things from him this season. His talent is still top-of-the-charts good, so we shouldn’t give up on him as a potential future first rounder just yet. He may end up being a nice value at a lower draft position next season. Ian Kinsler never found his power stroke this season and once again found a way onto the DL. Tulow and Pedroia also hit the DL, but due to freak injuries.

 

Round 3

 

25.

Félix Hernández

Seeking Relief

26.

Ryan Zimmerman

Guppies

27.

Grady Sizemore

Braun’s …

28.

José Reyes

FB365

29.

Jimmy Rollins

Shallow Be T…

30.

Pablo Sandoval

WOLF DEN

31.

Robinson Canó

PBurke

32.

Mark Reynolds

Schwetty Wei…

33.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Babe Ruthless

34.

Ichiro Suzuki

LosPunchados…

35.

Jason Bay

Maiden Correia

36.

Jayson Werth

Strictly Bus…

 

Only three of the twelve players in this round avoided being busts (Hernandez, Zimmerman and Cano). I’m buying a bounce back season from Kung Fu Panda in 2011. He’s at .297/.342/.552 in the second half and has five home runs in August.

 

Round 4

 

37.

Nelson Cruz

Strictly Bus…

38.

Dan Haren

Maiden Correia

39.

Ben Zobrist

LosPunchados…

40.

Kevin Youkilis

Babe Ruthless

41.

Brandon Phillips

Schwetty Wei…

42.

Kendry Morales

PBurke

43.

Víctor Martínez

WOLF DEN

44.

Derek Jeter

Shallow Be T…

45.

Aramis Ramírez

FB365

46.

Brian McCann

Braun’s …

47.

B.J. Upton

Guppies

48.

Justin Morneau

Seeking Relief

 

This round finds even more frustration. Nelson Cruz can’t stay healthy, Dan Haren has been haunted by home runs all season, Ben Zobrist lost all of his power, Kendry Morales lost his season on a walk-off home run, Victor Martinez hasn’t been healthy, it took Aramis Ramirez four months to finally get going, B.J. Upton can’t hit for AVG and Justin Morneau may miss the entire second half with a concussion. If I had to guess right now, I’d say Haren and Aramis will be good values in 2011 due to lowered draft stock.

 

Round 5

 

49.

CC Sabathia

Seeking Relief

50.

Justin Verlander

Guppies

51.

Brian Roberts

Braun’s …

52.

Aaron Hill

FB365

53.

Adam Lind

Shallow Be T…

54.

Nick Markakis

WOLF DEN

55.

Adam Dunn

PBurke

56.

Shin-Soo Choo

Schwetty Wei…

57.

Jon Lester

Babe Ruthless

58.

Yovani Gallardo

LosPunchados…

59.

Joakim Soria

Maiden Correia

60.

Jonathan Broxton

Strictly Bus…

 

Sabathia and Lester were very good values here while Roberts (autodraft I believe), Hill, Lind, Markakis, Gallardo and Broxton were all big-time busts. I like Aaron Hill for a solid comeback to .275, 20 HR next season.

 

Through five rounds, there have been far more busts than value picks.

 

Round 6

 

61.

Mariano Rivera

Strictly Bus…

62.

Carlos Beltrán

Maiden Correia

63.

Chone Figgins

LosPunchados…

64.

Adam Wainwright

Babe Ruthless

65.

Josh Johnson

Schwetty Wei…

66.

Josh Hamilton

PBurke

67.

Ubaldo Jiménez

WOLF DEN

68.

Johan Santana

Shallow Be T…

69.

Curtis Granderson

FB365

70.

Chris Carpenter

Braun’s …

71.

Cole Hamels

Guppies

72.

Jason Bartlett

Seeking Relief

 

The round six pick on Beltran was a disaster. Not only did he miss the majority of the season, but he has done very little since returning to action. Figgins, Granderson and Bartlett were the only real bust of this round. Josh Hamilton, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimamez were all huge values in this round. Proof once again that it is not necessary to draft starting pitchers in the first few rounds.

 

Round 7

 

73.

Gordon Beckham

Seeking Relief

74.

Andre Ethier

Guppies

75.

Billy Butler

Braun’s …

76.

Ricky Nolasco

FB365

77.

Bobby Abreu

Shallow Be T…

78.

Clayton Kershaw

WOLF DEN

79.

Tommy Hanson

PBurke

80.

Cliff Lee

Schwetty Wei…

81.

Matt Wieters

Babe Ruthless

82.

Manny Ramírez

LosPunchados…

83.

Jay Bruce

Maiden Correia

84.

Ian Stewart

Strictly Bus…

 

Cliff Lee was a great value on this round. He was dealing with an abdominal strain at the start of the season, which lowered his draft stock at the time. Billy Butler never regained the power stroke he found late in 2009, but his AVG remains high. I like Butler in 2011 drafts if his stock drops significantly. Matt Wieters and Manny Ramirez were huge busts while Jay Bruce, Gordon Beckham and Ian Stewart have done OK (Beckham since the all-star break), but not enough to earn their draft positions. Bruce has the most upside of that group and has been hitting for a ton of power lately. Perhaps his wrist, which was fractured late in 2009, is finally getting back to 100 percent strength.

 

Round 8

 

85.

Derrek Lee

Strictly Bus…

86.

Chipper Jones

Maiden Correia

87.

Carlos Peña

LosPunchados…

88.

Raúl Ibañez

Babe Ruthless

89.

Jonathan Papelbon

Schwetty Wei…

90.

Carlos Lee

PBurke

91.

Torii Hunter

WOLF DEN

92.

Michael Young

Shallow Be T…

93.

Carlos Quentin

FB365

94.

Shane Victorino

Braun’s …

95.

Elvis Andrus

Guppies

96.

Adam Jones

Seeking Relief

 

Derrek Lee, Chipper Jones, Carlos Pena and Raul Ibanez started out this round with one bust after another. Carlos Lee also saw a big regression this season while Carlos Quentin, Shane Victorino, Elvis Andrus and Adam Jones have all struggled with their consistency. Torii Hunter continues to be a solid fantasy option, but he’s 35-years-old and his numbers are way down in the second half. I’m probably staying away from him in 2011.

 

Round 9

 

97.

Andrew McCutchen

Seeking Relief

98.

Álex Ríos

Guppies

99.

Alexei Ramírez

Braun’s …

100.

Josh Beckett

FB365

101.

Wandy Rodríguez

Shallow Be T…

102.

Dan Uggla

WOLF DEN

103.

Javier Vázquez

PBurke

104.

Michael Cuddyer

Schwetty Wei…

105.

Scott Baker

Babe Ruthless

106.

Carlos González

LosPunchados…

107.

Heath Bell

Maiden Correia

108.

Chad Billingsley

Strictly Bus…

 

Alex Rios was a tremendous value in this round, but he has hit only .263/.294/.361 with three home runs and three stolen bases in the second half. Keep that in mind going into 2011 drafts. Both Josh Beckett and Wandy Rodriguez have had down seasons, but both have shown signs of hope (Beckett’s 8.2 K/9 and Wandy’s 1.82 ERA and 56/10 K/BB ratio post all-star break). Both could be nice values in 2011. Carlos Gonzalez was the clear super value in this round as he approaches a .320/30/20 season. Car-Go could catapult into the first round, which means I wouldn’t take the risk based on an inflated .369 BABIP and a 38 percent chase rate. Don’t get me wrong; I still think he’ll put up very good numbers, but not first round type numbers again.

 

Round 10

 

109.

Matt Garza

Strictly Bus…

110.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Maiden Correia

111.

Jake Peavy

LosPunchados…

112.

Howie Kendrick

Babe Ruthless

113.

Hunter Pence

Schwetty Wei…

114.

Matt Cain

PBurke

115.

Yunel Escobar

WOLF DEN

116.

Denard Span

Shallow Be T…

117.

Lance Berkman

FB365

118.

Rickie Weeks

Braun’s …

119.

José Valverde

Guppies

120.

Miguel Montero

Seeking Relief

 

Hunter Pence was a great value in this round and he has now established himself as a reliable top seven round option going forward. Rickie Weeks finally stayed healthy and had his breakout season, but I’m thinking that he gets way overvalued in 2011 because of it. Lance Berkman…thanks a lot a-hole.

 

Round 11

 

121.

Chris Davis

Seeking Relief

122.

Brian Wilson

Guppies

123.

Trevor Hoffman

Braun’s …

124.

Carlos Mármol

FB365

125.

Francisco Rodríguez

Shallow Be T…

126.

Jered Weaver

WOLF DEN

127.

Huston Street

PBurke

128.

Jason Kubel

Schwetty Wei…

129.

Frank Francisco

Babe Ruthless

130.

Brett Anderson

LosPunchados…

131.

Mike Napoli

Maiden Correia

132.

Adrián Béltre

Strictly Bus…

 

It’s interesting to note that Chris Davis is still only 24-years-old and he continues to rake minor league pitching. He’ll never hit for AVG in the big leagues, but does he have a couple Mark Reynolds seasons in him? He’ll likely go undrafted in 12-team mixed drafts next season. There was some extremely good value on closers in this round (Hoffman and Fank Francisco aside). Adrian Beltre has been great, but I’d like to see him do something worth while in a non-contract year for a change.

 

Round 12

 

133.

A.J. Burnett

Strictly Bus…

134.

Rafael Soriano

Maiden Correia

135.

Andrew Bailey

LosPunchados…

136.

Jorge De La Rosa

Babe Ruthless

137.

Ryan Dempster

Schwetty Wei…

138.

Francisco Cordero

PBurke

139.

Bobby Jenks

WOLF DEN

140.

Gavin Floyd

Shallow Be T…

141.

Francisco Liriano

FB365

142.

José López

Braun’s …

143.

Chad Qualls

Guppies

144.

Nate McLouth

Seeking Relief

 

More pitching value in this round (Liriano, Bailey, Soriano and Dempster). De La Rosa and Floyd could be two nice late-round targets in 2011.

 

Check back on Sunday for part two as we look at what late round values were found on draft day 2010.