Inside the Projections: Adam Dunn

Looks like Chicago’s south side team has landed the left-handed power bat they coveted. In 2011, Adam Dunn will bring his power bat to one of the best offensive ballparks in the game. How does this affect his 2011 projection? Let’s take a look…

Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn inspects a bat in the dugout during the Naitonals' game against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park in Washington on July 27, 2010.  UPI/Kevin Dietsch Photo via Newscom

Adam Dunn’s 2011 projection:

551 .252 .376 .540 .916 41 94 108   0

Interestingly enough, Adam Dunn actually showed a little regression in 2010. His walk rate (11.9 percent) was his lowest since 2001 and about four percent below his career average. Dunn’s strikeout rate (35.7 percent) was the highest of his career. Also a career high was Dunn’s .329 BABIP. Moving from the expansive outfield area of Nationals Park to the cozy confines of “The Cell” will likely result in a drop in BABIP. However, one ball in play that doesn’t count toward BABIP is a home run. While the smaller home ballpark is likely to lead to a lower BABIP, it should also lead to a few more home runs. 

After two straight seasons of a .260 or higher AVG, a regression is likely for 2011 due to an increase in strikeouts and whiff rate last season. However, for leagues that use OBP, Dunn should see an improvement. His .356 OBP in 2010 was his lowest since 2003 and came along with the regression in walk rate. Dunn has always excelled at drawing walks and should see an increase in that category in 2011. 

In the middle of the White Sox lineup, which is much better offensively than the lineup featured in Washington, Dunn has the potential to reach or surpass 100 runs and 100 RBI — the 100 RBI part is basically a lock.

Even if the White Sox re-sign Paul Konerko, Dunn figures to see a good amount of playing-time at both first base and designated hitter, so keeper leagues shouldn’t worry about him losing eligibility there.

For Adam Dunn, 38 had become the new 40 — as in his home run production — but just like the Reservoir Dogs tie is coming back into style, 40 is making a comeback in Adam Dunn’s world for 2011.

Other “Inside the Projections” articles: Jose BautistaDaniel BardJ.D. DrewJohn LackeyJed LowrieAndrew McCutchenJonathan PapelbonKevin Youkilis
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