Arrived into Houston after a travel day, so just a quick post.
Joel Pineiro’s signing with the Angels lowers his fantasy value. Many of you may have figured he was in line for a big regression anyway. Not only does he now move to the more offensive American League, but he leaves Dave Duncan’s tutorage behind. Now, Mike Butcher is no slouch as a pitching coach, but I think we can say with some certainty that Duncan has a way of working magic with “project” pitchers.
Last season Pineiro developed more sink on his fastball and two-seam fastball. According to pitch f/x at fangraphs.com, Pineiro used a version of his fastball over 66 percent of the time. The added sink led to a ground ball rate over 60 percent, well above the norm.
I’ll finish with this: Which is more likely? Pineiro will continue to succede in the American League as he did his first good year since 2004 or that 2009 was his career year and the 31-year-old is in line for a big regression. Just look at his ground ball rates over the last eight years…I’ll take the ladder and stay well away from Pineiro on draft day.