MVN: Most Valuable Network

I've made a few trades here and there throughout the season dispersed amongst my different leagues.  But then came yesterday.  I had been getting a rush of offers from a couple different teams in my ESPN 10 team auction league.  After a little back and forth two deals went down involving trading away 4 and receiving 4 players.  Here are the deals.

Received Chipper Jones for Jorge Cantu.  My offense if fine, but could use help mostly in AVG and despite his current slump Chipper should help in that area.  Even if he misses a few games here and there (more like when) I still would rather have Chipper over Cantu.  I also have Aramis Ramirez on my DL, so I'll be able to put one of the two at CI or UTIL when he comes back.

I was getting some serious interest in Zack Greinke. Aside from Greinke my starting pitchers consists of Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Cain, Edwin Jackson, John Danks and Max Scherzer.  As you can see, pitching is pretty solid.  Since the offers were coming back fairly aggressive, I decided to see how high I could sell on Greinke as I have already had a half seasons worth of great production.  The deal ended up like this...

My team traded: Zack Greinke, Shane Victorino and Frank Francisco

My team received: Alex Rodriguez, Matt Kemp and Chad Qualls

The way I see it: A-Rod has started to find a little groove.  While I don't think he'll be the A-Rod of old for the rest of the season, he should be a great addition to Chipper/Aramis at 3B/MI/UTIL and makes one of them expendable should I want to try and deal for another position.  To me Matt Kemp>Shane Victorino.  They are the same type of player, but Kemp has more power and more speed.  Frank Francisco for Qualls is basically a wash at this point.  Francisco has not looked sharp since returning from the DL and Qualls is a low end closer.  My other closers include Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg and Kerry Wood.  Not the best closer group in the world, but it's holding me above water. 

All in all these are the players I gave up and received:

I got:

Chipper Jones

Alex Rodriguez

Matt Kemp

Chad Qualls

I gave up:

Jorge Cantu

Zack Greinke

Shane Victorino

Frank Francisco

How do you think I did in my day of wheeling and dealing?

P.S. have a great 4th of July weekend!!!!

In Cincinnati, Chris Dickerson is making a case for the full time centerfield job.  As Willy Taveras continues not to get on base (NOT A SINGLE WALK IN THE MONTH OF JUNE!!)  Dickerson finds himself with a respectable .288 AVG and .389 OBP.  He's not doing much with regards to power or stolen bases, but if by chance Dusty Baker decides to bat him leadoff because, deep breath, HE ACTUALLY GETS ON BASE, then he could see a slight rise in value for NL-only and deep mixed leagues. 

Francisco Rodriguez blew the save, his third in 10 days.  Nothing new here.  Frankie has averaged 5.5 blown saves per season since becoming a full time closer, which is about the norm. 

This is what I worried about with Kevin Correia.  His fastball velocity was back a little yesterday, but not where it was during is hot streak.  You can see from the chart below (via fangraphs.com) the upward trend in Correia's average velocity and how it dropped significantly his last outing.  Yesterday's outing is represented with the red dot, which indicates an average fastball velocity of just over 91 mph.

A.J. Happ is becoming an interesting starter to watch.  Since converting to a full time starter he has shown a nice progression in K/BB rate.  Also, Happ's velocity is showing signs of progression as well.  He's currently owned in only 37% of Yahoo! Leagues.  

Franklin Gutierrez stays hot.  He hit .304 with 4 homers and 3 stolen bases in June. 

Pitchers are not giving anything to Albert Pujols and he'll take his walks all day long.  The beneficiary?  Ryan Ludwick.  It's been a struggle this season with healthy and a prolonged slump, but he has 7 hits in his last 5 games and 3 RBI in his last 2 games with Pujols getting on in front of him.

Derrek Lee didn't just hit 2 homeruns last night.  He hit 2 pure bombs last night.  One was a grand slam and Lee collected 7 RBI on the night.  Lee hit .333 and slugged .973 in June. 

Will there be a place for Jake Fox to play once A-Ram returns from the DL?

I think I'm done betting against Mark Buehrle.

Back this week with Mark from Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove.  Last week we looked at some players to target in trades.  This week we look at some players worth selling high on.

Torii Hunter - A lot can come with a name brand.  Hunter's charisma and highlight reel catches make him a household name.  That makes no difference when it comes to fantasy baseball.  What it does do is help to boost his perceived value.  Hunter's .306, 17 HR, 12 SB line is very front-loaded.  8 of his homeruns came in April when his flyball rate was over 50%.  That rate has fallen back down to his career standards and so too has the AB/HR rate.  9 of his 12 steals came in May and his AVG has gone from .325 in April to .304 in May and .289 in June.  His strikeouts also continue to rise per month.  It's safe to say that the best part of Hunter's season is behind him.  In the second half we'll likely be seeing a good player, but one that will be less valuable for your fantasy team.  Recently traded for: David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Dan Haren, Ichiro Suzuki, Evan Longoria.

Ben Zobrist - Yeah, he looked pretty legit coming out of the gates when he moved into a full time role, but let's face it, he's not Chase Utley good.  His almost 24% HR/FB rate is sure to regress a little and he strikes out over 22% of his at bats.  June was a significantly cooler month for Zobrist.   I do think he's capable of 10-12 homers in the second half, but the AVG may not get much over .280 or so.  The biggest reason to sell on Zobrist is the proven talent you can get in return.  Recently traded for: Lance Berkman, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Jose Reyes, Bobby Abreu, Chad Billingsley.

CC Sabathia - The ERA and WHIP look good, but look deeper and you might not like what you see.  While everyone is worried about Johan Santana's recent issues, it's Sabathia's strikeouts that have been way down all season long.  His 6.44 K/9 is only a little above league average and he is seeing more fly balls off the bat of opposing hitters than he has in his career.  Think this will get better in the second half?  It could, but there is plenty of risk involved as well.  Sabathia is on course to approach 230 innings this season, which would actually be down from a consecutive three year rise in innings pitched.  Take into account the way (amount of innings) he pitched late last season and into October.  There would seem to be a chance he wears down in August and September of this season.  Even if he doesn't wear down, the fact is that we are looking at a pitcher who's value is still largely perceived off of last season's incredible performance.  Sabathia is the perfect guy to try and deal for a package of players.  In many cases Sabathia would be viewed as the best player in the deal, but he may not be all that different than a second tier starter right now.  Recently traded for:  Scott Kazmir + Ichiro, Manny Ramirez + Carlos Zambrano, Heath Bell + Carlos Lee, Matt Capps + Clayton Kershaw + Hunter Pence and 1 for 1 deals for Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez.

3 Sell Targets from Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove:

Jason Bartlett. His BABIP is .413. His K rate has increased slightly from last year. He only has 7 home runs. More than two-thirds of his plate appearances have come from the 7-9 spots in the batting order. Continue reading...

Jordan Zimmermann is getting a lot of fantasy love lately.  I was on this guy in late April.  He out-pitched Josh Johnson yesterday.

Cody Ross hit his 14th bomb of the season of newly acquired Sean Burnett.  Ross is slugging .633 vs. left handed pitching this season. 

Josh Johnson left the game after only 3.1 innings.  No injury, just a rain delay and 4 walks to go with a rising pitch count.

Ricky Romero continues to impress.  He's stranding over 85% of runners and his FIP is a run higher than his ERA before his start yesterday.  Walks and the AL East are my concerns, but he's definitely a guy worth rostering right now.  He's only owned in 33% of Yahoo! leagues.

Brad Bergesen impressed against the Red Sox.  He's not going to strikeout a ton of guys, but he's keeping the ball on the ground and keeping the walks to a minimum.  His next start comes against the Mariners.  If you need a spot start, he's worth another go.

Yovani Gallardo struck out a career high 12 in 7 IP against the Mets.  If Gallardo can reduce his walk rate, he's basically Lincecum light.

Gil Meche, coming off a "dead arm" period, threw 121 pitches in only 6 innings.  His arm looked fine with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's, but minor injuries have been an issue this season.  If I'm A Meche owner (or a Royals fan) I'm not happy about the pitch count at all. 

Billy Butler, 4-4, continues to outperform James Loney, but it seems no one is paying attention. 

Jason Hammel has been pitching well for the Rockies lately.  He's not quite the ground ball pitcher Aaron Cooks is, but he is getting enough groundballs and limiting walks to be an NL-only add.

Troy Tulowitzki got cold just as fast as he got hot two weeks ago.  I think he'll finish with an AVG around .270.

Jimmy Rollins took another o'fer, but so did most of the Phillies against Jair Jurjjens who only allowed 1 hit. 

Justin Verlander was touched up last night.  That makes two less than spectacular starts in a row.  I'm not reading much into it.

Jose Contreras has struck out 8 batters in 3 of his last 4 starts.

Randy Wells pitched well again and got his third straight win.  I'd start him again at home vs the Braves in his next start. 

Johnny Cueto brought back the strikeout last night against the D-Backs.  Of course the D-Backs are second only to the Marlins in team strikeouts. 

Kevin Millwood and Jered Weaver squared off in a battle of the "sell highs".  Neither faired particularly well and neither are likely to repeat their first half numbers in the second half.

Nelson Cruz left with a back injury.  It didn't sound serious, but I never like to hear about back problems.  Keep an eye on the situation.

Albert Pujols did not hit a homerun, but he did go 2-2 with a stolen base.  Can he go 60/20!!?  Not likely, but this is just amazing to watch.

Matt Cain continues to strand runners like crazy.  8 Cardinals left on base and only 3 strikeouts. 

Adam Wainwright struck out a career high 12 in 9 innings.  He's throwing a curveball or slider on nearly 40% of his pitches.  That combined with only 132 innings pitched last season raises a bit of a red flag for potential time missed later this season. 

There were a few players that I took notice of at the California League/Carolina League all-star game.  One of those players was Mariners farmhand Alex Liddi. 

Background: A player for team Italy in the WBC, who was actually born in Italy, Liddi was signed as a free agent by the Seattle Mariners in 2005.  He was 3 for 8 in this year's WBC with 4 strikeouts, which is his biggest issue needing development.  Currently Liddi is in the midst of a breakout year offensively hitting .347 with 19 HR. 

What I saw in person: He impressed with his line drive homerun power during the homerun derby.  At 6'4" 176 he's a tall lanky kid that reminds me a lot of a young Troy Glaus.

The lowdown:  Coming into this season Liddi was not among the top Mariners prospects, or even in the top 20 for that matter and rightfully so.  He hit .240/.308/.385 at mid-A in 2007 in 400 AB's and .244/.313/.360 in 2008 over 447 AB's.  He also combined for only 14 homeruns in those two seasons.  Starting this season at high-A High Desert has made a world of difference.  5 of Liddi's 19 homeruns have come at home, which very much distorts his overall numbers.  The Cal League in general is considered a very hitter friendly league, but high desert is the pre-humidor Coors Field of the league.  The combination of its elevation, dry air and high winds make for box scores like this one. 

There is no doubt that Liddi's performance so far this season warrants attention, but the real test would come from a move to AA West Tennessee. 

A note from the expert:  As much as I love to follow minor league baseball and track prospects, there is only so much time to follow/attend games or read reports etc...That's why it is important to rely on credible sources for information.  One of my favorite minor league sources is Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.  I recently sent him an email asking about Liddi.  This is what he had to say...

I will tell you that the Mariners are very excited about Liddi - I talked to someone there about him for Futures Game stuff. He's legit, with power and the skills to stay at third.

• Awesome. Foley's NY adds to Irish BB HOF http://bit.ly/9u0bw about 2 hours ago
• @djdaniel How about we call it the Golden Cinco! about 2 hours ago
• RT @Jeff_Erickson Final line on Meche 121 pitches in 6 innings...yikes about 2 hours ago
• Gallardo 12 K's though 7 IP. Man crush. about 2 hours ago
• RT @ToddZolecki The Phills have Rodrigo Lopez starting Fri night against the Mets at (home). That's a no-go for Carrasco or Carpenter. about 2 hours ago
• @BluegrassInNYC Maybe they're trying to be the 1985 Cardinals. Imagine Morgan and Pierre B2B in the lineup. Like watching live deja vous about 3 hours ago
• @BluegrassInNYC More a joke that there are similarities between Dukes & Milledge/Juan Pierre & Nyjer Morgan. They r shopping Dukes though about 3 hours ago
• @Savannahseniors RE: Josh Johnson. I've got nothing so far. Wasn't there a rain delay of some sort? about 3 hours ago
• Frank Francisco to resume closers role: ""He's back," Washington said with a smile." Thats solid! about 3 hours ago
• The Nats sent Dukes down. Does this mean they're going to trade him to the Dodgers for Juan Pierre? about 3 hours ago

It's July!  News on Grady Sizemore this morning from CBSsports.com:

News: Indians All-Star center fielder Grady Sizemore will likely undergo postseason surgery on his inflamed left elbow, trainer Lonnie Soloff said Tuesday. Soloff said "there's a high index of suspicion" that Sizemore will need an operation at some point. Soloff, speaking before the last-place Indians hosted the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night, said Sizemore will have to play with soreness in his elbow for the remainder of the season. "Grady will have symptoms the balance of the season," Soloff said. "We hope to keep him away from symptoms that affect his performance or put him at risk of injury."

This is surprising to me considering the info I've been going on. 

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are both targeting a return after the all-start break.

Jimmy Rollins, 0-5 in his return to the lineup.  He's now hitting .207.  At what point do we just give up?  It's been almost half a season.  Right about now you may be able to buy low for a Ryan Dempster type pitcher. 

Julio Lugo is back.  He went 2-6 with 2 runs scored and a stolen base.  Also struck out 3 times. 

I've been writing about Gordon Beckham a lot lately and for good reason.  He went 3-4 with his second homerun of the season.  Let's make a bold prediction...Gordon Beckham is more valuable in the second half than Marco Scutaro.  Is that bold? 

Ichiro stole 3 bags for the M's last night.  He's hitting .373 with 16 steals and 6 HR (he hit a total of 6 HR in 2007 and 2008). 

Brandon Morrow has a long way to go in his transition to a starting pitcher. 

J.P. Howell got the save for the Rays.  Ever feel like a mouse chasing a piece of cheese being pulled away on a string?

With the addition of Nyjer Morgan, Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes will be fighting for playing time.  I still think Dukes has a chance to turn things around.  Keep an eye on the situation.

It's been a while since I mentioned Emilio Bonifaco, but he had 8 steals in the month of June.  There is still not a lot of value in AVG/OBP or anything else, but I guess if you are in a deep enough league and need cheap steals he's your guy. 

David Murphy has 4 homeruns in his last 6 games.  This may be more of a hot streak than a sign of things to come.

Elvis Andrus stole 4 bases in the Rangers 9-5 win.  His speed was never in question.

David Wright hits a homer!!! Don't give up hope for more second half power! 

Johan Santana is starting to really worry me.  The velocity dipped a little from his last outing and he didn't strikeout more than 4 in any game the whole month of June.  I'll have more on Johan later today.

Corey Hart batted leadoff and went 3-5.  Hart is one of the most frustrating players to watch.  He has 20/20 ability, but the contact rate continues to fall and strikeouts continue to rise.  I'll own up to endorsing him this season.  I just don't see anything that makes me believe his second half will be that much better.

After 2 more yesterday, Albert Pujols now has 30 homeruns on July 1st.  Could he be the first to hit a non-steroid induced 60 homeruns since Maris?  Would it be steroid free?  I hear the rumors, but for now I'll hold on to the hope that he never touched a PED.  No one is beyond speculation though. 

Both Randy Johnson and Chris Carpenter had rough outings.  I see the point that Johnson's numbers indicate he should be a good buy low guy, but I am just too concerned with his age and nimbleness to even go shopping.   

Fernando Rodney is walking on very thin ice.  Jim Leyland probably wont make any changes as long as the Tigers stay ahead of the pack in the central.  Remember, this is the guy who was happy to have Todd Jones in there with the game on the line.  You should have Joel Zumaya on your radar nonetheless. 

Geo Gonzalez continues to be a miss as a hard throwing left-handed prospect.  He threw 40 balls out of his 84 pitches.

Adrian Gonzalez left last nights game after tweaking his knee sliding into third.  From what I gather it is not considered serious, but it might cost him a day or two.  Kyle Blanks will likely fill in at 1B if A-Gonz misses any time. 

Lance Berkman looks like his old self again...finally. 

There has been a ton of rumors swirling this morning about a possible Nyjer Morgan for Lastings Milledge deal within the next 24 hours.  Will Carroll tweeted this morning that he had been told by a "good source" that a deal could be in motion.  MLB Trade Rumors whispered the possible deal a few days ago and continues to monitor it as we speak.  For fantasy owners the impact of this deal may be one to take action on immediately when, or if, it happens.

Nyjer Morgan - His fantasy stock has dropped a little in May, but he has picked up his AVG and SB production in June.  No matter what the AVG it is reasonable to think Morgan can approach the 40 steal plateau this season.  If traded, Morgan would likely bat leadoff or second in front of a good group of hitters in Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn.  That's an obvious upgrade from Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche and Brandon Moss.  Consider Nyjer Morgan's stock to go up if the deal goes down.

Lastings Milledge - A lot of sleeper love was squashed quickly when Milledge was sent down after striking out nearly 42% of his at bats with the Nationals to start the season.  Once in the minors Milledge continued to struggle, then mid May broke a finger.  He has just begun a rehab assignment.  It is very likely that even if traded, Milledge will need 1-3 weeks of rehab time in the minors.  That being said, the Pirates are going nowhere in the NL Central and realistically they won't contend for the wild card either.  As soon as Milledge is deemed healthy I would expect him to be playing in the outfield for the big league club.  If the trade does go down, NL-only leagues should react fast (if he happens to be available) and deep mixed and deep keeper leagues in desperate need of outfield help should consider an add given the roster space.  

Now all we can do is wait, but at least we're ready to act if the deal goes through.

Update: MLB Trade Rumors says the deal is done.  Other players involved Joel Hanrahan to PIT and Sean Burnett to WAS.  Neither has much fantasy value, but keep an eye on Hanrahan.  If he pitches well for the Pirates, he may work his way to some save chances should Matt Capps get injured.

Early in the season the free agent wire was full of treasure.  Marco Scutaro was one of those hidden gems, especially with his shortstop eligibility.   I've praised Scutaro for his ability to get on base on top of a Jays lineup that almost assured him of 100 runs scored.  However, with close to half the season gone and half the season to go, Scutaro may be feeling more like it is September than July...and that's not a good thing.

As you can see from Mark's post yesterday that I mentioned in this morning's Morning Drive there is bound to be someone in your league who has had enough of mixing and matching failed shortstop options.  Scutaro would be a great guy to dangle in a trade to these owners. 

What's wrong with Scutaro then?  Nothing really.  Was he playing a bit over his head this first half?  You could argue that maybe he was a little, but not all that much.  He has two things working against him going forward. 

1.Baseball is a long, long season.  Last season was Scutaro's first in which he accumulated over 500 at bats.  Batting leadoff everyday for the Jays, he is almost sure to blow past that this season perhaps by 100 to 200 at bats.  How he will react to the fatigue of playing that much longer of a season is going to be key.  Already we are seeing a slight fall off in OBP from Scutaro.  At points this season he has been a .300 hitter, but let's face it; he's not a .300 hitter.  In reality, he's been getting by with a 15.7% line drive rate, which is J.J. Hardy territory. 

2. Replacement level players.  What's the best we can hope for from Scutaro over the next half of the season?  .285/.375/.385 with 5 HR 5 SB?  That seems realistic, if not optimistic in the HR/SB categories.  Right now players like Clint Barmes, Brendan Harris, Christian Guzman and Gordon Beckham are less than 50% owned in standard formats.  If you can give up Scutaro and fill a hole elsewhere you may be able to afford the difference between Scutaro and his replacement level player without much of a hit to your overall numbers. 

Some quick hits before we get going: Mark from Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove traded Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza and Nick Markakis for Hanley Ramirez.  Check out his analysis and reasoning behind pulling it off.  Below this post are a few quotes from PiratesReport.com in which John Perrotto talks to some scouts about some top Pirates prospects in Altoona.  Brett Greenfield hosts a roundtable over at Fantasy Phenoms.  Question: Who would you rather have the rest of the season?  Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander or Jon Lester?  I agree with the majority by the way.  On to the Morning Drive...

Gordan Beckham had a 3 for 3 game including a stolen base.  He was also caught stealing once last night, which is at least a sign that he could be running a bit more in the second half.  Beckham is 7 for 13 in his last 4 games

Gavin Floyd continues to impress going 7 innings allowing no runs on five hits with 5 strikeouts. 

Rich Harden is complex to say the least.  He struck out nine in 7 innings, but allowed 9 hits and stranded 8 runners in scoring position.  Is he going to stay healthy for the rest of the season?  Is Alex Rodriguez an honest guy?  Same answer for both.

J.J. Hardy may have had his coming out game going 4-4 with a homerun.  Hardy has been incredibly unlucky so far this season with a .247 BABIP.  He should have a better second half if you can buy low for a decent fix at SS or MI capable of .260, 12-15 HR. 

Roy Halladay looked good coming off the DL, but took the loss to Jeff Niemann who now leads the Rays in wins (7) and took his ERA to under 4.00.  Since I don't chase wins and Neimann has a K/BB rate around 1.30, I will not be considering him in any league (he is not available in my AL-only).

Randy Chote filled in for the save.  Ever feel like a mouse chasing a piece of cheese being pulled away on a string?

Hot Nolasco Sauce continues to prove that he is back!!!  8 innings and 8 K's for the win.  Nolasco has not allowed more than 2 runs in a game since his return from the minors.

Leo Nunez got the save for the fish.  Ever feel like a mouse chasing a piece of cheese being pulled away on a string?  Nunez should get the bulk of save opps until Lindstrom comes back.  If he pitches well enough he'll likely keep the job even when Lindstrom comes back. 

Juan Rivera now has as many homeruns (13) as Carlos Lee. 

Travis Ishikawa hit his 5th long ball of the season.  Lets face it, he's not going to be a mixed league option, but cheap power is cheap power.  Ishikawa has hit 1 more homerun (4) than James Loney (3) in June and is hitting .250 compared to Loney's .253.